Month: September 2014

How hard to brew beer alone? : Homebrewing:

“Getting into homebrewing to save money on beer is like buying a fishing boat to save money on fish” — Denny Conn.

All the world’s a stage – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:

All the world’s a stage, And all the men and women merely players. They have their exits and their entrances, And one man in his time plays many parts, His acts being seven ages. At first the infant, Mewling and puking in the nurse’s arms. Then, the whining school-boy with his satchel And shining morning face, creeping like a snail Unwillingly to school. And then the lover, Sighing like furnace, with a woeful ballad Made to his mistress’ eyebrow. Then, a soldier, Full of strange oaths, and bearded like the pard, Jealous in honour, sudden, and quick in quarrel, Seeking the bubble reputation Even in the cannon’s mouth. And then, the justice, In fair round belly, with a good capon lined, With eyes severe, and beard of formal cut, Full of wise saws, and modern instances, And so he plays his part. The sixth age shifts Into the lean and slippered pantaloon, With spectacles on nose and pouch on side, His youthful hose, well saved, a world too wide For his shrunk shank, and his big manly voice, Turning again toward childish treble, pipes And whistles in his sound. Last scene of all, That ends this strange eventful history, Is second childishness and mere oblivion, Sans teeth, sans eyes, sans taste, sans everything.

How to see into the future – FT.com:

How to be a superforecaster Some participants in the Good Judgment Project were given advice on how to transform their knowledge about the world into a probabilistic forecast – and this training, while brief, led to a sharp improvement in forecasting performance. The advice, a few pages in total, was summarised with the acronym CHAMP: ● Comparisons are important: use relevant comparisons as a starting point; ● Historical trends can help: look at history unless you have a strong reason to expect change; ● Average opinions: experts disagree, so find out what they think and pick a midpoint; ● Mathematical models: when model-based predictions are available, you should take them into account; ● Predictable biases exist and can be allowed for. Don’t let your hopes influence your forecasts, for example; don’t stubbornly cling to old forecasts in the face of news.