How to see into the future – FT.com:
How to be a superforecaster Some participants in the Good Judgment Project were given advice on how to transform their knowledge about the world into a probabilistic forecast – and this training, while brief, led to a sharp improvement in forecasting performance. The advice, a few pages in total, was summarised with the acronym CHAMP: ● Comparisons are important: use relevant comparisons as a starting point; ● Historical trends can help: look at history unless you have a strong reason to expect change; ● Average opinions: experts disagree, so find out what they think and pick a midpoint; ● Mathematical models: when model-based predictions are available, you should take them into account; ● Predictable biases exist and can be allowed for. Don’t let your hopes influence your forecasts, for example; don’t stubbornly cling to old forecasts in the face of news.